Bitcoin Market Analysis - January Part 2

BTC and ETH TL;DR

• Bitcoin & Ethereum are up 8.90% and 0.19%, respectively, over the past fortnight.
• Greythorn views that Bitcoin will range between $20,000 and $25,000 over the upcoming week based on our option flow model. 

Greythorn Flow Model:

Greythorn’s view of markets is significantly dependent on supply & demand mechanics. As crypto markets mature & attract large flows of capital, their derivatives markets also grow. Derivatives markets tend to have a large influence on their underlying assets as market participants tend to hedge their exposure through spot & futures markets. Our proprietary option flow model has been developed in-house to inform our judgement regarding how positioning across derivatives markets may influence the movement of Bitcoin. 

After a strong start to 2023 with an 8% gain solely from last week, Bitcoin is trading at levels last seen in August 2022. The weekly opening price, $22,708, is ~$5,000 higher than what it was two weeks ago. Based on the GEX chart, BTC’s trading range is getting narrower with new areas of support being formed.

Increased volatility is expected at a series of price levels that have negative Net GEX, namely $21,000 and $24,000. 

If the price decreases, $22,000 is the first strong support level, followed by $20,000 as the second support to prevent the price from tumbling further. If the price increases, $23,000 would be the first resistance level it meets. The second powerful resistance can be found at $23,500, while the interval between $25,000 and $30,000 can be regarded as a resistance zone should the price goes up further. 

The value of Net GEX becomes more positive, which indicates a flatter market is expected for the upcoming week. Considering US GDP data is to be posted on Friday, along with ECB President Lagarde’s speech planned on the same day, uncertainties can be introduced to the crypto market in the foreseeable future. Together with several other fundamental economic indicators, such as US Crude Oil Inventories on Thursday and Initial Jobless Claims on Friday, whether the Bitcoin market would still move sideways afterwards is questionable. 

Greythorn believes that Bitcoin will range between $20,000 and $25,000 over the upcoming week based on our option flow model.

For an introduction to Greythorn Option Flow Model, please refer to our newsletter from 8th June 2022. https://greythorn.substack.com/p/greythorn-asset-management-newsletter

Important notice and disclaimer

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